Tuesday, October 24, 2006

- Oil rose for a second day on Wednesday, pushing toward $60 a barrel after the United Arab Emirates' move to cut exports lent more credibility to OPEC's supply curbs while cold U.S. weather increased energy demand.

U.S. light crude rose 22 cents to $59.57 a barrel by 0243 GMT, after gaining 54 cents on Tuesday. London Brent was up 24 cents at $60.10 a barrel.

Abu Dhabi's state oil firm told major customers on Tuesday that it would cut crude exports by about 5 percent in November, following Saudi Arabia's lead and tempering skepticism on how OPEC's 1.2 million barrel per day (bpd) cut would materialize.

But prices are still only about 5 percent above the year's low of $56.55 a barrel, touched last week, and have not closed above $60 a barrel since Oct 5 as some traders still want to see proof of deeper cuts reflected in inventory levels.

"It shows some resolve on the part of OPEC producers, but it is going to take more than these two countries to restore the group's credibility," said Jim Ritterbusch, president at Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois.

The UAE is due to reduce output by about 100,000 bpd as part of an OPEC deal last week to cut production by about 4.3 percent of its September output. Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia told customers at the weekend it was cutting November supply.

However, U.S. government inventory data due out later on Wednesday is likely to show a further rise in already high crude inventories as refinery turnarounds kept feedstock demand tepid, a Reuters poll of analysts showed .

Crude stocks probably rose by 2.6 million barrels. With a more than one-month sailing time from the Middle East to U.S. shores, it may be December before OPEC curbs begin to show.

Distillate stocks, including heating oil, which stood 15 percent above year-ago levels in the previous week, were seen falling by 1.1 million barrels, the survey found. Gasoline stocks likely dipped by 600,000 barrels.

"We've got surplus supplies of winter fuels, which despite concerns over a colder than expected winter, should keep up with demand through winter," Ritterbusch said.

Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast, the biggest oil consuming region in the world, will be colder than usual and see higher heating demand over the next five days, U.S. based private forecaster Meteorlogix said on Tuesday.

Private WSI Corp on Monday predicted warmer-than-normal Northeast temperatures in November followed by cooler weather in December and January, becoming the latest forecaster to predict average or below-average temperatures for the region.