The price of natural gas may fall in New York this week as speculation grows that record-high inventories will be adequate to meet peak demand this winter.

Six of 11 traders and analysts, or 55 percent, predicted that prices would drop this week, according to an Oct. 20 survey by Bloomberg News. Four said prices would gain, and one expected little change.

The reasoning behind the belief in a drop in prices was rooted in a 28 percent rise last week, one that traders said was not justified because utilities and storage companies were flush with inventory.

Colder-than-normal weather in the central United States in the past two weeks was not severe enough to cause a surge in demand, respondents said.

"Cold temperatures may support prices for a while, but high storage levels will be pressuring the market for months to come," said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets in New York.

Natural gas for November delivery ended last week at $7.241 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since Aug. 11.

Natural gas stockpiles reached 3.442 trillion cubic feet, or 97.466 billion cubic meters, in the that week ended Oct. 13, a record level based on 12 years of data from the U.S. Energy Department. The previous record was 3.327 trillion, reached in the week that ended Nov. 5, 2004.

Ronald Barone, an analyst at UBS Securities in New York, said that stockpiles would likely climb to 3.5 trillion cubic feet before cold weather forced utilities to drain natural gas to meet rising demand for heat. Inventories usually are expanded from April to November to help supplement pipeline shipments in winter.

Excess natural gas in pipelines has forced some producers to halt output. Woodside Petroleum, one of the largest oil and natural gas companies in Australia, said on Oct. 19 that it might miss 2006 production targets in part because it had idled some U.S. fields in reaction to low prices.

Cold weather in the past two weeks across the central United States forced households to turn on furnaces early.